Sunday, October 17, 2004


For a long time I've felt that the smartest guy in the Bloggosphere is Wretchard over at the Belmont Club. Of course, I feel that way because I agree with most of the stuff that he posts. Thus...

He's commented on something that I've noticed in the last week or so... how the poll numbers seem to be wildly fluctuating... not actually deviating, but "fuzzing". That usually means that there are unknown factors being introduced into a stable frequency population. Hmmm... if I was looking at data that involved any money or academic outcomes my mathematical ears would be coming to a point. Hmmm..... first pushing down the Kerry numbers then having them bounce up after the first debate. Now, I know those things move around, but if you look at the long trend lines they don't really move around all that much. That's why they're called trend lines.

I'm slow to talk about fraud, but if you make all of the decisions towards a certain direction, then the numbers will foster that illusion... for a while. The key to that is the for a while. But the minute that the external influence is removed then the data will settle down and return to the predicted line. What ever it is.

If the data has been tinkered with or pushed into extreme sampling errors or whatever, it will tend to "jitter". It's sort of like bumping into a stereo while the record is playing. Distortion.

Anyhow, I suspect that den beste and Wretchard are right in their take on this piece of the nuancing. Is there collusion and criminal skulduggery at work here? I doubt it. The libs just want things to go their way so badly that they will do anything... anything... to make the dream come true. They're not voting for Kerry. They're casting their vote for "Anybody but Bush". Pitiful.

The election will settle all of the foolishness once and for all. Of course, it is at that point that any attempts to steal the election must be stopped. The democrats got a lot of practice in publicly tinkering with the process when the prez was accused of stealing the last election. You remember the State of Florida getting the sharp end of all those Leno and Letterman jokes about crooked politics? We can not allow them to pull that particular rope from both ends again this November.

No matter what... I'm really tired of all this crap. Don't you wish that it was all over with so that we could go back to our usual news-fare of car wrecks and dead rock stars filling the front pages? Hmmm... I wonder where my old Ramones albums could be?